COVID Mutation and Changes in Transmissibility/Virulence/Other

The emergence of a variant of the COVID-19 virus in the UK, classified as B.1.1.7, was identified in September and publicized in early December.  Reports hold that B117 is 50% - 70% more contagious than our predominant variant now circulating (D614G).  Within three months of the variant being identified in the UK it became dominant strain circulating there.  Additional variants of concern have emerged internationally: B1351 (South Africa) and Brazil (P1) which are also highly transmissible.  An additional variant, B1526,  emerged in New York City in November.  Its features are being studied. 

All variants appear to be significantly more transmissible than the virus which dominated Wave 1 of the pandemic. 

The first three variants are spreading globally and have been detected in the US.

The B117 and B1351 variants have been identified by the DPH as being in circulation in MA.

Researchers are working to determine if the variants differ from D614G (the Wave 1 configuration) in terms of: 1. How sick people become, 2. If natural immunity is different following infection with D614G, and 3. If immunity from vaccination differs since the vaccine was developed during the period that D614G has been predominant.  The existing vaccines may be less effective against the new strains.  Moderna and Pfizer are working on booster shots to counter these new strains. 

The CDC is posting surveillance information on the emergence of the variants in the US:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html

According to an article by Andrew Joseph from StatNews, "Coronaviruses evolve more slowly than viruses like flu, but they do pick up mutations as they spread.  SARS-CoV-2 has been adding one or two changes a month to its RNA genome since it emerged late last year in China, and different versions of the virus have been continuously circulating throughout the course of the pandemic. But this variant (B.1.1.7 or VUI-202012/01) showed up with at least 17 mutations, according to one genetic analysis." (Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/21/looming-questions-new-variant-coronavirus/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=1a74bda2ca-MR_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-1a74bda2ca-150158417